Thailand's Vision 2044: A 20-Year Blueprint for the Future

Thailand's Vision 2044: A 20-Year Blueprint for the Future

By Janpha Thadphoothon

When it comes to planning for the future, one often wonders about the motives and assumptions. One might wonder why a state needs to plan far into the future. It is common for long-term plans to be made for development, conservation, and sustainability. A company or even an individual often has a plan, but rarely does anyone has a long term plan - like the 20 year one.

As a matter of fact, these plans help guide a nation’s growth and protect its resources. From history, we often hear about grand projects and conflicts, like the Hundred Years' War in Europe, that stretched across decades, if not centuries. Having a long-term plan is essential if you truly understand your goals and the challenges ahead.

The first challenge is - no one knows the future.

Indeed the future is uncertain, and the real issue lies in our limited ability to predict it. No one can foresee events with absolute certainty—not even someone like Nostradamus, despite his famous prophecies. Planning, therefore, is a balancing act between ambition and adaptability. It is less about predicting the future and more about preparing for various possibilities, ensuring that a state is resilient enough to face whatever may come.

Thailand's 20-year plan

Thailand has a long-term plan, commonly referred to as the 20-year strategy. You might ask whether this plan holds the force of law. The answer is yes—it does. This strategy is enshrined in the national charter, making it a significant legal framework. It is essentially a "big law," binding on all levels of government. Every management team, from local to national, is required to follow and adhere to the guidelines set forth in this plan. It is more than just a set of recommendations; it is a roadmap that government agencies are obliged to implement as part of their duties.

As a concerned citizen of Thailand, I, like many of my fellow Thais, have often found myself reflecting on the direction our country is heading in and the well-being of our people. In today’s fast-paced and interconnected world, it is only natural to wonder whether we, as a nation, are truly prepared to meet the challenges of the future. Beyond the day-to-day political debates and the laws that govern us, Thailand has set its sights on something larger—a long-term plan to guide our country’s development. This plan has been crystallized into the 20-Year National Strategy.

In my opinion, as a non-expert's one, this strategic vision is both ambitious and essential. Thailand, much like many other countries, must anticipate the complex global shifts we are facing—be they economic, environmental, or technological. This 20-year framework is designed to look far beyond the immediate future and to pave a path toward a more stable, prosperous, and sustainable Thailand. The question, however, is whether this vision is truly aligned with the aspirations of the Thai people and whether it can adapt to the unpredictable nature of the world.

The architects of this strategy, mainly the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) and various government bodies, seem to have envisioned a Thailand that is more self-reliant, equitable, and secure. The Philosophy of Sufficiency Economy, championed by the late King Bhumibol, is the bedrock of this plan. It calls for moderation, balance, and resilience in the face of global uncertainties—a philosophy that resonates deeply with me and many others who see the value in sustainable, thoughtful development. 

But, as common sense tells us, no plan is without its flaws or challenges. While it is obvious that a long-term strategy is needed to ensure progress, there are legitimate concerns about whether this strategy, drafted by an unelected body, reflects the true will of the people. Does it offer enough room for innovation and flexibility in an ever-changing world? Or will it prove to be too rigid, locking future generations into policies that may not suit their needs?

I find myself asking these questions not just as a Thai citizen, but as someone who wants to see Thailand thrive—not just survive—in the global arena. Can this 20-year vision truly drive us toward a future where Thailand is both competitive on the world stage and deeply rooted in its cultural values? Will it uplift all segments of society, or will it merely serve those already in positions of power? These are the kinds of questions I feel we need to be asking as we look ahead to what this strategy means for Thailand, its people, and our role in the world.

In the coming years, it will be crucial for us to reflect on how well the strategy is being implemented. Are we moving toward the promised stability, wealth, and sustainability, or are we veering off course? Are our leaders, both present and future, committed to this vision, or will political and economic interests derail it? Only time will tell, but as concerned citizens, we have a duty to keep asking these questions, pushing for transparency, and ensuring that this strategy serves the interests of all Thais—not just a select few.

As we move forward, it is clear that Thailand's place in the world will be shaped by how well we manage the next two decades. In my opinion, if we stay true to the core values of balance and moderation embedded in the Sufficiency Economy philosophy, Thailand can become a beacon of sustainable development not only for ourselves but also for the world. This is not just a dream—it is a real possibility if we engage with the strategy critically, hold our leaders accountable, and adapt it to meet the changing needs of our society.

Let's Look Closely at the Plan

The 20-Year National Strategy (2018-2037) is Thailand's first long-term national strategy implemented under the Constitution of 2017. It was designed with the overarching goal of guiding Thailand toward stability, prosperity, and sustainability, with a strong emphasis on the Philosophy of Sufficiency Economy, a development model rooted in moderation and resilience, proposed by the late King Bhumibol Adulyadej.

According to the 20-year national strategy draft, which was released to the public, the strategy is divided into 6 areas:

1. Security strategy

2. Strategy for building competitiveness

3. Strategy for developing and strengthening human potential

4. Strategy for creating opportunities for equality and social equity

5. Strategy for creating growth on quality of life that is friendly to the environment

6. Strategy for balancing and developing the public administration system

To fully grasp the essence of Thailand's 20-year strategy, you need to read the strategy document itself in its entirety. However, understanding the strategy on its own is not enough. You also need to study Thailand's national charter, as the two documents are closely intertwined. The national charter provides the legal foundation for the strategy, outlining the constitutional mandate that requires its implementation. Together, these two documents form the core framework for Thailand's long-term governance and development goals. For anyone looking to deeply understand the country's direction, both are essential readings.

Click here for the strategy (in English)

Click here for the access to the national charter.

Origins: Why Was the 20-Year National Strategy Created?

The need for the 20-Year National Strategy arose from Thailand’s struggle with political instability, economic inequality, and environmental challenges. The country has faced military coups, rapid economic changes, and societal divides over the past decades, often leaving its development trajectory fragmented. In response to this, the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), the military junta that took power in 2014, initiated this long-term plan. It aimed to establish a more structured and unified approach to development, one that would transcend political regimes.

The 20-year plan is outlined in the national charter. Section 65 states that the government shall establish a national strategy aimed at sustainable national development, guided by the principles of good governance. This strategy will serve as a framework for aligning and integrating various plans to ensure coordinated efforts towards achieving these goals.

The core idea was to ensure that Thailand's development pathway would remain consistent, regardless of which political party or government was in power. It was a deliberate effort to provide long-term continuity, insulating national priorities from short-term political shifts.  

Who Created It, and For Whom?

The National Strategy Committee, composed of military leaders, government officials, and technocrats, led the development of the strategy. Key figures, such as General Prayuth Chan-o-cha, the former Prime Minister and head of the NCPO, played a pivotal role in its creation. Various government agencies, ministries, and stakeholders contributed to outlining the specific goals within the strategy.

The strategy was designed for the Thai population as a whole, with special attention to economic growth, social equity, environmental sustainability, and national security. It was intended to provide a roadmap for government, private sectors, and civil society to follow.

Criticisms of the 20-Year National Strategy

Despite its ambitious aims, the 20-Year National Strategy has faced significant criticism. Here are a few notable points:

1. Democratic Concerns: Critics argue that the strategy was created by an unelected military government and lacks broad democratic legitimacy. The strategy binds future elected governments to its framework, limiting their autonomy and flexibility.

 2. Rigid Structure: The strategy’s long-term nature can be seen as inflexible. In a fast-changing world where economic, social, and technological landscapes shift rapidly, locking the country into a 20-year plan may stifle innovation and adaptation.

Although it is possible to revise or adjust the national strategy, the process is somewhat complex. While the strategy can be amended, the main challenge lies with the "National Strategy Committee." - Despite assurances from NCPO officials that the strategy is amendable, the National Strategy Act of 2017, Section 11, specifies that the strategy must be reviewed every five years. If, during this period, the strategy is found to be inconsistent with or unsuitable for the global situation or Thailand's needs, amendments can be made. However, such amendments require the "National Strategy Committee" to first seek parliamentary approval before any changes can take effect.

3. Concentration of Power: Some observers believe the strategy consolidates too much power in the hands of technocrats and military leaders. Critics worry that this limits public input and marginalizes grassroots development.

It has been criticized that the National Strategy, once enforced, will require future elected governments to align their policies and propose annual budgets in accordance with its framework. As a result, the National Strategy may take precedence over the policies proposed by political parties elected by the people.

4. Ambiguity in Implementation: While the strategy sets ambitious goals, there have been concerns about how well these plans are being translated into action. Many argue that it lacks clear, measurable objectives and accountability mechanisms.

Can It Be Good for Thailand and the World?

The Philosophy of Sufficiency Economy, which underpins the strategy, advocates a balanced and sustainable approach to development. If successfully implemented, this could lead to more equitable wealth distribution, improved quality of life, and environmental sustainability. Thailand could emerge as a model for other developing nations, showing how long-term planning can address persistent societal challenges.

On a global level, Thailand’s focus on sustainability, in line with UN Sustainable Development Goals, positions the country as a contributor to global environmental efforts. The strategy’s emphasis on climate action, natural resource management, and resilient economic systems could foster international cooperation, particularly with countries facing similar challenges.

However, its success depends heavily on inclusive governance. If the strategy remains rigid and disconnected from the changing needs of society, its potential to benefit Thailand and the world will be limited.

Thailand’s 20-Year National Strategy is a bold attempt at ensuring the nation’s stability and progress. It has the potential to create lasting positive impacts if it embraces flexibility, democratic participation, and accountability along the way. Whether it succeeds will depend on how well it is adapted to the evolving global context.

My take on the 20-year strategy, like many others, is one of perplexity. This strategy represents something Thailand has never seriously implemented before—a long-term national plan. What makes it even more significant is that it has been integrated into the constitution and is overseen by a special committee, making it difficult to modify. There must be reasons why it was incorporated into the constitution.

On reflection, having this long-term plan/strategy allows the public to scrutinize the future direction of the country. It’s akin to a national homework assignment, engaging every Thai citizen in the national conversation. This is an ingenious approach to fostering public involvement.

From an educator’s perspective, the plan feels similar to a national curriculum, like a set track for running horses—a guide to ensure we stay on course and do not veer off.  This is based on the underlying assumption that we know where we are going and it is where we would like to be in the first place. Not to mention, other factors, of course. One thing is for sure, however, we must have confidence that this track is the right one. But how can we know?

It requires a great deal of faith and trust. Most importantly, I believe the success of the strategy depends on the Thai people's trust and their ability to recognize the good intentions behind the plan.

References:

Summary of the National Strategy: https://www.bic.moe.go.th/images/stories/pdf/National_Strategy_Summary.pdf

National Charter of Thailand (2017)
chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://old.parliament.go.th/ewtadmin/ewt/parliament_parcy/download/article/article_20171031122616.pdf

Thailand's National Strategy.
chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/http://nscr.nesdc.go.th/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/National-Strategy-Eng-Final-25-OCT-2019.pdf

The Unofficial Translation of the Constitution of Thailand:
chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://cdc.parliament.go.th/draftconstitution2/download/article/article_20180829093502.pdf

In Thai
ยุทธศาสตร์ชาติ 20 ปี
http://nscr.nesdc.go.th/ns/

The Official Document in Thai
chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.ratchakitcha.soc.go.th/DATA/PDF/2561/A/082/T_0001.PDF

About Janpha Thadphoothon

Janpha Thadphoothon is a lecturer at the International College of Dhurakij Pundit University (DPU) in Bangkok, Thailand.

Please cite as:
Thadphoothon, J. (2024), Let's Look Closely at Thailand's 20 Year National Strategy. on JT Blog. Available online at https://janpha.blogspot.com/2024/10/lets-look-closely-at-thailands-20-year.html