Tuesday, December 21, 2021

The Metaverse and How We'll Build It Together -- Connect 2021

Education in the Metaverse

Education in the Metaverse

Janpha Thadphoothon

One may ask what a metaverse is. There are several definitions. All of them suggest that the Metaverse is the future of the Internet. The picture painted for us by experts and leaders including Mark Zuggerburg is that it is exciting and full of interesting activities and activities are are immersive.




Please cite as :

Thadphoothon, J. (2022). "Education in the Metaverse". Available online at https://janpha.blogspot.com/2021/12/education-in-metaverse.html




โครงสร้างหลักสูตรของนักศึกษา2021 BE DPU 2021

 Here.


Monday, December 20, 2021

Why We Need Self-Driving Vehicles

 Why We (Really) Need Self-Driving Vehicles 

Janpha Thadphoothon

I  am dead serious that humans should stop driving cars and other motor vehicles. If you were to disagree, you'd better come up with better solutions. Evidence is on the side of the technology. We need this technology and we need it really urgently. This urgency has pushed several innovative projects.


         Photo credit: https://worldscholarshipforum.com/wealth/cars-with-self-driving-features/

Human drivers ---- safety, arbitrariness, and natural errors 


Humans are less consistent and reliable when it comes to driving. I do not want to blame everyone, every human, but humans have ego and often argue against anything that will take away their arbitrariness disguised under the mask of freedom. Old people are different from youngsters when it comes to driving behavior. There are 'noises' everywhere and unpredictability and accidents occur on a regular basis - injuries, loss of lives, and damages. One may wonder what could be done to save lives and prevent tragedies.


I do not have to provide more evidence to make my case that humans are less than perfect to function as drivers. Machines can do a better job in terms of safety and they can offer us a better quality of life.







One solution is to go automatic and reduce human errors from the equation. 


Of course, I am a follower of the push toward self-driving technologies,







You do not have to be a rocket scientist to figure out how many lives have been lost due to motor vehicle accidents. Many have become disabled. It is odd that we endure this tragedy and accept this as unavoidable, if not fate.

I admire men like Elon Musk and many others who are making driving less lethal. The fact that cannot be denied is a big loss to humanity. For the first time in human history, we can capable of designing automatic systems to make driving safer and less torturing.

The sooner the technology is ready and adopted, the more lives, pointless deaths, and suffering we can reduce, or possibly eliminate.

Sunday, December 19, 2021

The Metaverse Explained With Examples

Links to ELT Practice

Links 


Match the Phrases Simple Complex and Compound Sentences

https://www.turtlediary.com/game/match-the-phrases-simple-compund-and-complex-sentences.html

Speech to Text & transcription software

https://www.textfromtospeech.com/en/voice-to-text/


Tuesday, December 14, 2021

Post for Dec 15 ZOOM Meeting

 Chatuporn Insuwan is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.


Topic: English Speech Contest 

Time: Dec 15, 2021 08:30 Bangkok


Join Zoom Meeting

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Meeting ID: 847 2670 2482

Passcode: 862590

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Thursday, December 9, 2021

What exactly is "Nirodha" in the 4 Noble Truths?

 What exactly is "Nirodha" in the 4 Noble Truths?

The cessation of suffering (Nirodha) has at least two meanings or notions"

1 The state of being - Nirvana.
2. The desired state - dirty air to a more desirable state - clean air

I guess the Buddha was referring to the former, that is, the cessation of Dukkha.

In the cosmological discussion, Buddhist scholars sometimes ponder upon the two states - Nirodha and Nibbana.


The Four Noble Truths

Statue of BuddhaStatue of Buddha, 1st-2nd century CE, Afghanistan ©

"I teach suffering, its origin, cessation and path. That's all I teach", declared the Buddha 2500 years ago.

The Four Noble Truths contain the essence of the Buddha's teachings. It was these four principles that the Buddha came to understand during his meditation under the bodhi tree.

  1. The truth of suffering (Dukkha)
  2. The truth of the origin of suffering (Samudāya)
  3. The truth of the cessation of suffering (Nirodha)
  4. The truth of the path to the cessation of suffering (Magga



    Source: BBC (2009, Nov 17). The Four Noble Truths. Available online at https://www.bbc.co.uk/religion/religions/buddhism/beliefs/fournobletruths_1.shtml


Saturday, December 4, 2021

From Manuscripts to national & International Publication

 From Manuscripts to national & International Publication


Date 4 December 2021

Time 9.00-11.00 AM

Venue: ZOOM Meeting


Friday, November 26, 2021

ELT Trends in the 21st Century

Lian, A-P. (2011),   Reflections on language learning in the 21st century: The rhizome at work. Rangsit Journal of Art and Science (RJAS), Vol. 1 No. 1 Jan.-Jun. 2011, pp. 5-16.

 

In "Reflections on language-learning in the 21st century: The rhizome at work", Prof Andrew-Peter Lian reflected on some of the ELT trends. One of which is the trend towards "interdisciplinariness" in the academic world.


Wednesday, November 24, 2021

Details of BC 307 Online Seminar on Dec 1, 2021

 BC 307 Online Seminar

Reading in Business (BC 307) Online Seminar

Date Wednesday, December 1st, 2021





About the Speaker

Nash Chottivattanapong

Occupation: Investor, Researcher, and DPU doctoral student


Student Participants:

1. Archaree Chaopoluang

2. Bai Haotian

3. Christopher Richard Smith

4. Deng Zixiu

5. Kalyarat Kaewkrajok

6. Namthip Aiamsee

7. Nang Heart Mown lao

8. Navaporn Rattanaaumporn

9. Nawaphong Phuwanartphakdee

10. Pheng BunLong

11. Phu Kositanont

12. Pich Pisey Chhay

13. Rittirong Santat

14. TRUONG HUU BAO NGOC

15. Yang Lingfeng

16. Yong Yeng Yean


Program

Program (1.30-3.00 PM)

ZOOM Platform


Opening (1.30-1.40)

// MC Tean - go through the seminar program

// MC Team invites Dr Janpha Thadphoothon to give an opening remark

// Invite Team A to give an oral presentation (Then , B, C, D, E...)

Students’ Presentations (4 Teams)

Team A - What is money? The history of money

Team B- How to make more money & How to Save Money

Team C - Digital Money - What is it? Compared with paper money

Team D - Cryptocurrency - What is it? Can we trust this currency? How many cryptocurrencies are there?

// Invite the speaker to the stage

Special Talk by Nash Chotivattanapong "General Knowledge of Cryptocurrency" (about 30 -40 Minutes)

Qs and As

Closing

+++++++++

ZOOM

Janpha Thadphoothon is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.

Topic: BC 307 Reading in Business Wed 13.30
Time: Dec 1, 2021 01:30 PM Bangkok
        Dec 1, 2021 01:30 PM
Please download and import the following iCalendar (.ics) files to your calendar system.
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2021 CLOUD ONAIR India EdTech Summit

 CLOUD ONAIR

India EdTech Summit


There are many leading experts on November 24, 2021, for a special online event dedicated for EdTechs in India. Leaders from across the globe will share how they are opening doors to transform education with the help of Google Cloud. 

Highlights include: 


Inspirational advice and learnings from notable EdTech founders and leaders

Discussions with a Venture Capitalist and Google leadership on how to raise capital and the future of education 

Expert-led sessions on how to bring the best of Google to your business

When? November 24, 2021

Steven Butschi, Head of Education, speaks on Google Cloud’s mission and the role EdTech companies have for the future of education and workforce development.

Security & Privacy Issues

EdTech Industry


2.

Paul Wilson, Managing Director of Public Sector, Google Cloud Asia Pacific discusses EdTech's monumental growth in JAPAC and why this is the moment to transform your business with new product innovations and customer channels. 

//// Chatbots can do more than answer students questions about coursework

Paul Wilson, Managing Director of Public Sector, Google Cloud Asia Pacific



Tuesday, November 23, 2021

Tourism in the 21st Century

 Hello:

I would like to thank Greg Richards for inviting me to join this online discussion. I have a few notes, basically my personal impressions regarding tourism, cultures, and creative elements.
1. The coming of Metaverse and AI - would certainly transform the industry, not to mention the information already available online and businesses capitalizing on the potential.



2. Cultures have been negotiated and are often negotiable, which is as we know 'political'. I do not wish to see cultures as simply narratives, but a way of life of a group of people.
3. The tradeoff between international tourism and economic growth is not easy to determine. In general, the need to drive the economy may override other considerations, including local and global stakeholders.

Friday, November 19, 2021

English-X Conversation Project

                  English-X Conversation Activities

The aim of English-X is to help you learn English. 
Thank you for agreeing to take part in a small-scale study.  Please go to the link and chat with English-X,








1. Here are your tasks - try to find out about the following:

1. Ask the chatbot about his or her age - ถามอายุ

2. Ask English-X about his or her hometown - ถามเกี่ยวกับบ้านเกิด (Hometown)

3. Talk to English-X about Christmas - คุยเรื่องวัน Christmas

4. Chat with English-X about homework - ถามเรื่องการบ้าน

5. Converse with English-X about Covid-19 - ถามเรื่อง Covid-19

(You are only allowed to use the English language.)

Example? Please watch the video below.







2. Please complete the questionnaire

Go to Your Google Class to Do It.


Thank you.

Contact Janpha Thadphoothon (janpha.tha@dpu.ac.th)  for inquiries





Wednesday, November 17, 2021

Writing a Discussion Section & Abstract

 27 November Writing a Discussion Section

9.00 - 10.00: Workshop/KM, 10.30 onwards: Writing + Consultation + Feedback

To discuss is one of the fun parts of writing a thesis or report. You now have the power to do what should be done. You are an active agent now and you have been empowered by your effort.



There are many different ways to write this section. 

You can focus your discussions around 4 key elements:

1. การตีความ Interpretations: What do the results mean?

2. นัยของข้อค้นพบ Implications: Why do the results matter?

3. ข้อจำกัด Limitations: What can’t the results tell us?

4. คำแนะนำ Recommendations: What practical actions or scientific studies should follow?

Source: https://www.scribbr.com/dissertation/discussion/


ตัวอย่าง

Discussions

the finding shows that on average the students had positive attitudes towards the AI chatbot experience. This may be due to the following reasons.
1.
2.
3.

Discussions

The findings of this study are in contrast with those of Baker, Smith, and Black (2019) in that they have found botching to be boring and useless among college students, but this study found that the majority of Thai university students enjoyed chatting with an AI chatbot.


Discussions




Thursday, November 11, 2021

The 2021 English Camp Prizes (Virtual)

 Below are the prizes:

1. Picture Frames



2. Teddy Bear Keyrings



3. Korean Masks




4. Pencil Cases



5. Waterproof Pouch Cellphone Dry Bags




Tuesday, November 9, 2021

Language Form - Language Use - A Hypothesis on the Frequency Correspondences and Predictability

A long time ago, my professor, whose name I intentionally withhold, told me one law of the universe -that is, the frequency is the law.

It works well when applied to most phenomena, including language use.

Grammar is no exception. For the sake of convenience, we humans prefer shorter versions to longer ones such as a boy and three boys.

Haspelmath (2021) offers a hypothesis - that is that language use affects the form of grammar.

The form-frequency correspondence - is posted to be universal, that is, the shorter form reflects more use among people. The author cites examples of the use of present tense over past tenses and the use of singular form over plural forms.

The laws that I intend to investigate further are:

1. "The Form-Frequency Correspondence Universal Law" - that is that "Languages tend to have shorter forms for more frequent meanings."

This hypothesis has been formulated from his observation that singular nouns are more frequent than plural nouns, and present-tense forms are more frequent than future-tense forms.

The idea of form–frequency correspondences in grammar


"Language systems favour efficient coding (Hawkins Reference Hawkins2004Reference Hawkins2014), or that they support efficient communication (Gibson et al. Reference Gibson, Futrell, Piandadosi, Dautriche, Mahowald, Bergen and Levy2019)."

 Source: 

HASPELMATH, M. (2021). Explaining grammatical coding asymmetries: Form–frequency correspondences and predictability. Journal of Linguistics, 57(3), 605-633. doi:10.1017/S0022226720000535


Thursday, November 4, 2021

JavaScript Tutorial for Beginners: Learn JavaScript in 1 Hour

APHEIT - EDU 2022 - National and International Conference on Education

Call for Papers

Our Past Proceedings - Please Click Here.


The 6th National and the 2nd International Conference on Education  (APHEIT-EDU 2022) 

Theme "Challenges of New Educational Management After the 2019 Covid-19 Crisis"    

++++++


APHEIT-EDU 26-27 February 2022 

The National and International Conference, Education, Association of Private Higher Education Institutions of Thailand under the Patronage of Her Royal Highness Princess Mahachakri Sirindhorn

Sunday, October 31, 2021

The Metaverse: Serious Platform or Hype?

The Metaverse: Serious Platform or Hype?

Janpha Thadphoothon


This is time for us to adopt a new company brand to encompass (include) everything that we do to reflect (show) who we are and what we hope to build I am proud to announce that starting

today our company is now Meta.




Our mission remains the same. It's still about bringing people together. Our apps and their brands --- they're not changing either and we are still the company that designs technology around people.


Hey...and welcome to connect today we're going to talk about the Metaverse starting with the most important experience of all connecting with people.




Imagine you put on your glasses or headset and you're instantly in your home space. It has parts of your physical home recreated virtually. It has things that are only possible virtually and it has an incredibly inspiring view of whatever

you find most beautiful.


Hey are you coming yeah just gotta find something to wear

all right perfect


oh hey Mark hey what's going on what's up?


whoa, we're floating in space uh-huh who made this place it's awesome,



right? It's from a crater i met in l.a uh this place

is amazing.




baz that you, of course, it's me you know i had to be the robot man i thought i was supposed to be the robot, whoa


I knew you were bluffing. Hey wait where is Naomi? Let's call her. Naomi, hey should we deal you in? Sorry, I'm running late but you've got to see what we're checking out. There's an artist going around Soho hiding ar pieces for people to find

3d street art, that's cool send that link over so we can all look at it


This is stunning okay that is somethingn that's awesome wow I love the movement. Wait it's it's disappearing this is

amazing hold on I'll tip the artist and they'll extend it wow


privacy and safety need to be built into the Metaverse from day one. You'll get to decide when you want to be with other people when you want to block someone from appearing in your space or

when you want to take a break and teleport to a private bubble to be alone.


you're going to be able to bring things from the physical world into the Metaverse almost any type of media that can be represented digitally. Photos videos art music movies books

games. you name it.


Lots of things that are physical today like screens

will just be able to be holograms in the future.


You won't need a physical TV. It'll just be a one dollar hologram from some high school kid halfway across the world and

you'll be able to take your items and project them into the physical world as holograms in Augmented reality too.


One part of this is horizon home which is our early

vision for a home space in the metaverse horizon home is the first thing that you'll see when you put on your quest

headset.


Today there are already a bunch of options to choose from and in the future anyone will be able to create one we've just called it home until now because it's been missing something very important. 


People soon we're going to be introducing a social version of home where you can invite your friends to join you as

avatars you'll be able to hang out watch videos

together and jump into apps together.



Then there is horizon worlds which is where

you can build worlds and jump into them

with people horizon is designed to make it possible

for everyone to create and we're already seeing people build some really interesting experiences from creating

new games together to throwing surprise parties and VR that family and friends around the world can join over the last year and a half a lot of us who work in offices have gone remote

and while I miss seeing the people I work with I think remote work is here to stay for a lot of people, so we're going

to need better tools to work together let's take a look at what working in the Metaverse will be like imagine if you could be at the office without the commute you would still have

that sense of presence shared physical space those chance interactions that make your day all accessible from

anywhere.


Now imagine that you have your perfect work set up and you can actually do more than you could in your regular work set

and on top of all that you can keep wearing your favorite sweatpants and as we focused more on work and frankly as we've heard your feedback more broadly.




We're working on making it so you can log into quest with an account other than your personal facebook account.


We're starting to test support for work accounts soon. 

And we're working on making a broader shift here within the next year I know this is a big deal for a lot of people not everyone wants their social media profile linked to all these other experiences and I get that especially as

the Metaverse expands and I'll share

more about that later.


But i'm genuinely optimistic about working in the Metaverse we know from the last couple of years that a lot of people can

effectively work from anywhere but hybrid is going to be a lot more complex when some people are together and others

are still remote so giving everyone the tools to be

present no matter where they are whether it's a hologram sitting next to you in a physical meeting or in a discussion

taking place in the metaverse that's going to be a game-changer 


I think this could be very positive for our society and economy

giving people access to jobs in more places no matter where they live will be a big deal for spreading opportunity to

more people dropping our daily commutes will mean less time stuck in traffic and more time doing things that matter and it'll be good for the environment we plan to continue to either subsidize our devices or sell them at cost to make

them available to more people we'll continue supporting side loading  and linking to PCs so consumers and developers have choice rather than forcing them to use the quest store to

find apps or reach customers and we'll aim to offer developer and creator services with low fees in as many cases as possible so we can maximize the overall creator economy while recognizing that to keep investing in this future we'll need to keep some fees higher for some period to make sure that we don't lose too much money on this program overall 

after all while a growing number of developers are already profitable we expect to invest many billions of

dollars for years to come before the Metaverse reaches scale today we're introducing the presence platform which

is a broad range of machine perception and AI capabilities that empower developers to build uh mixed reality experiences on quest 2. 


Now you want to tell us more about the presence platform

yeah we've said before that realistic presence is the key to feeling connected in the Metaverse and the presence

platform's capabilities are what's going to deliver on that promise things like environmental understanding content

placement and persistence voice interaction standardized hand

interactions in fact let's start with hands.


I mean the human hand is an engineering marvel and bringing hands into VR was no easy feat. It requires a lot of collaboration against product design research, but we

continue to improve that product, finding new ways to navigate with gestures and interact with VR. So, today we're introducing the interaction SDK a library of modular components that

will make it easy to add hand interactions to your apps.


That's pretty exciting but next year we are releasing a new product that will push the boundaries of VR even further

we've co-named it project Cambria so this isn't the next quest it's going to be compatible with quest but cambria

will be a completely new advanced and

high-end product and it'll be at the

higher end of the price spectrum too.


Our plan here is to keep building out this product line to release our most advanced technology before we can hit

the price points that we target with quest. All right. So let's talk about some of the new advances here yeah sure there's a ton of new tech going into Cambria. For example, your avatar will be able to make natural eye contact and reflect your facial expressions in real time.


This way, people you're interacting with will havea a real sense of how you're actuall feeling.


It does mean building more sensors into a form factor that's "comfortable to wear" for a while and because we want VR to be for everyone we also have to make sure avatars represent a diverse set of human facial features and skin tones as well as paying attention to things like glasses and beards that might get in the way of some of the sensors so that's going to be a big step forward for social presence and i'm really glad that we're focused on making it inclusive from the start now what about unlocking more mixed reality experiences.


I mean imagine working at your virtual desk with multiple screens while seeing your real desk so clearly that you can pick up a pen and write notes without taking your headset off.

Or you know you're doing a workout with a virtual instructor in your living room. It's going to be so cool we're already seeing

the potentials of these kind of experiences today as people are building for a pass-through Api, but with Cambria we'll be taking this to the next level with high-resolution colored mixed reality pass-through.


We essentially, combine an array of sensors with

reconstruction algorithms to represent your physical world in the headset with a sense of depth and perspective, but the ultimate goal here is true augmented reality glasses and we've been 'working on that took.


And today I want to show you an experience that we've been

working on for project Nazare which is the code name for our first full augmented reality glasses. 


Here you'll see you're chatting with friends on Whatsapp and planning a game night you can select a game and then as you walk over your kitchen you can easily just put your game on to the table and you're off that's the kind of experience that augmented reality will unlock.


There's a lot of technical work to get this form factor and experience right we have to fit 'hologram' displays projectors

batteries radios custom silicon chips, cameras speakers sensors to map the world around you and more into glasses.


That are about five millimeters thick,so we still have ways to go with.






nazareth but we are making good progress


Saturday, October 30, 2021

ELT 3.0: A Proposed Intellectual Framework

 ELT 3.0: A Proposed Intellectual Framework

This intellectual framework has been proposed by Janpha Thadphoothon. The framework explains the development of English language teaching and learning based primarily on the use of technology.




The term ELT 3.0 is coined based on Max Tegmark’s book Life 3.0 (2017)., arguing for the integration of computers into foreign language education.

ELT teachers, under ELT 3.0, are to be equipped with two main roles. Lee and Qiufan (2021) suggest two roles for teachers: (1) they can be human mentors and connectors (2) they can program AI teacher and companions.

Lee, Kai Fu and Qiufan, Chen (2021). AI 2041: Ten Visions for Our Future. New York: Currency.


Wednesday, October 27, 2021

Youth Culture and Their Development

 Youth Culture & Their Development

I would like to share with you what I think about youths and their cultures. I also would like to share my thought on how to develop their potential through a set of interventions - and explain why it is necessary to do something about it, including the issues of employment, education, and other interventions. This is nothing but that which is necessary for a healthy society.

Often, we forget that our youngsters, those who are 13 or 14 until they are 2 years old, are considered teenagers. By definition, youth is a person in the period between childhood and adult age, normally 13-21 years old.

                 Photo credit: https://www.cdc.gov/violenceprevention/youthviolence/fastfact.html

The lengthy period of life, about 10 years, means that the youth are in the stage of identity formation.


Thursday, October 14, 2021

Limbic VS Cortex Systems

Limbic VS Cortex Systems






Source: https://www.ezmedlearning.com/blog/cerebral-cortex-lobe-anatomy


Limbic System of the Brain




Those who say that thinking is more important than knowledge often fail to address this - "Can there be thinking without content?"

Those who say that thinking is more important than knowledge often fail to address this - "Can there be thinking without content?"

Saturday, October 9, 2021

Saturday, October 2, 2021

EL 334 Business Discussions Online Seminar

 

EL 334 Business Discussions Online Seminar

Topic

The Power of Positive Mindsets


Confirmed Speaker

Ryan Sarfan


                                                           Date: Nov 22, 2021 09:00 AM - 10.30 AM




Program

9.00 -9.15 Opening Ceremony

9.20-9.30: Survey Presentations

09.40-10.25  "The Power of Positive Mindsets" by Ryan Sarfan

10.30 Closing Ceremony

  

The First DPU Virtual English Camp 2021

The First DPU Virtual English Camp




Topic: "English is Fun"


 Date: Nov 15, 2021

Time: 11:30 AM- 12.55 PM

Opening Ceremony

Everybody meets in ZOOM. 

Theme song - Sing and Dance Together




We  have six stations:

1. Station 1

2.  Station 2

3.  Station 3

4.  Station 4

5.  Station 5

6.  Station 6


You have 10 minutes at each station. Then you move ton the next - e.g. - Station 1 ---> Station 2


Closing Ceremony

Thanking and Sharing of experience


Wednesday, September 29, 2021

Academic Hygiene

 Academic Hygiene 

As a university lecturer, one of the challenges I often face is uncertainties. When we do research, we face ethical issues and when we teach, we, too, have to deal with a myriad of moral issues, e.g. what scores to assign, and our lectures notes.

Like most professionals, our duties and responsibilities involve making decisions. The best we can manage lies in our moral principles and professional standards. When we conduct a human-centered study, we need to seek advice and recommendations from a specialized committee. There are procedures to follow and principles to adhere to.

Another meaning of hygiene is the mental one. We as teachers have to face challenges, too, and we need to produce academic works and perform our duties as a scholar, and as a good employee of an organization. Sometimes, we have to deal with mental conflicts, such as conflicts of interest. Hygiene helps us to move forward.  

Noises in Decision-Making: Can A.I. reduce human biases and errors?

 Noises in Decision-Making

How do you make a decision? How do you choose which smartphone to buy or which guy to date or marry with?
Are you afraid that you will make the wrong decision?
Why?


The issue of noises is addressed in the book authored by three professors, and one of them won a Nobel prize. The language is accessible, even for me,  an English teacher and a non-native speaker of the English language. I bought a paper book from a local store in Bangkok, Thailand, and I never regret paying for the copy.

It reminds me of one bon mot : "To err is human." We are living with noises, most of them are noises from within. The book does not mention the concept of hobgoblins directly, but I can sense it.



I found this book immensely thought-providing and erudite


The three authors are:
1. Daniel Kahneman, Professor of Psychology and Public Affairs, Princeton University
2. Olivier Sibony, Professor, HEC Paris
3. Cass Sunstein, Robert Walmsley University Professor, Harvard University)

What is noise? 

Daniel Kahneman and Olivier Sibony, renowned experts in cognitive biases and decision making explain that noise is
" unwanted variability". This noise as a metaphor sometimes clouds organizations’ judgments. The question is--- what can we do about it?


 According to Daniel Kahneman:

Bias is the average error in judgments. If you look at many judgments, and errors in those judgments all follow in the same direction, that is bias.

By contrast, noise is
the variability of error. If you look at many judgments, and the errors in those judgments follow in many different directions, that is noise.

An example is given by one of the authors, Olivier Sibony,: 

Here’s a forecasting example to make it more concrete. Say we are planning how long it will take to redecorate our kitchen. We can expect that all of us will be too optimistic; all of us will underestimate the time it will take to finish the renovation. But even though we’re all talking about the same kitchen, none of us will have the exact same estimate of how long the project will take. The average error, whereby we underestimate the time, will be the bias in our forecast. The variability in those forecasts is the noise.

He adds:

Noise is the unwanted variability in professional judgments. The inclusion of “unwanted” in the definition is very important because sometimes variability in judgments is not a problem; sometimes it’s even desirable.

 But not when it involves professional judgment. The obvious example would be a doctor’s diagnosis. If two doctors give you two different diagnoses, at least one of them must be wrong. That is a judgment where variability is not desirable. There is a correct answer, and you would want these two people to have the same answer. When you don’t have the same answer to something where you’d want the same answer, that’s noise. 


Daniel Kahneman said: 

The noise we’re talking about in the book is “system noise,” or unwanted variability within a system of judgments. A good example is a judicial system. Judges should be interchange­able. They should give the identical sentence in the identical case. When they don’t, that is system noise. We found the same dynamics in medicine, with underwriters in insurance, and in many other functions.


Decisions to give a loan to a person

For instance, if lending money to someone would put a strain on your own finances and make it difficult to keep up with your bill payments, it’s probably not the best move. On the other hand, if you have a sizable emergency fund, little or no debt, and you’re getting a steady paycheck, making a loan might not be as difficult to manage. 

Aside from the financial implications, it’s also important to think about how likely you are to get the money back. If the friend or family member who’s asking for a loan is responsible for paying their bills and experiencing a one-time financial crisis, being paid back might not be an issue. If, on the other hand, you’re approached by someone with a history of being financially irresponsible, you could be taking a bigger risk by lending them money.

(Source: Investopedia)


Yes, there are noises, but what can we do to reduce those errors?

1. Use automatic systems

Artificial Intelligence can extract the data from various sources and classify them according to their type. AI can also compare it with the loan requirements and regulations and provide meaningful insights that can help the lender make more effective decisions on the borrower's creditworthiness.

 Many financial institutions are turning to AI to reverse past discrimination in lending, and to foster a more inclusive economy. 

Using algorithms or rules of some kind, or artificial intelligence (A.I.) , to replace human judgment. Wherever there is judgment there is noise, but the corollary of that is wherever you want to get rid of noise, you need to take away the human element of the judgment. 

The beauty of algorithms is that they will do that. They will eliminate the noise. There will be no mood, no temperature, no difference between your judgments and my judgments. The machine will churn out the same judgments so long as the algorithm doesn’t change.

2. Practice Decision Hygiene

Decision hygiene is a set of specific procedures for reducing noise. We call it hygiene because it is a form of prevention, not a remedy to an identified problem. As with other forms of hygiene, it can be a little bit thankless. You never get a pat on the back saying, “Well done washing your hands today, the disease you did not catch is the flu.” Likewise, you will never know which bias or error you averted by applying decision hygiene. It just needs to become second nature.

Take preventive measures - in short 

Wear a mask

Clean your hands
Keep a safe distance


 3. Experts and Competent Individuals

Competence matters. Some people are going to be better than others at any judgment. In medicine, for instance, some diagnosticians are better than others. If you can pick the better people, that helps. The better people are going to be more accurate; they are going to be less biased but they’re also going to be less noisy. There is going to be a less random error in their judgments.

4. Prefer Relative Judgement to the Absolute one

This is a recommendation by Olivier Sibony:

If you replace an absolute scale with a relative scale, you can eliminate a very big chunk of the noise. Think of performance evaluations again. Saying that someone is a “two” or a “four” on a performance-rating grid—even when you have the definition of what those ratings mean—remains fairly subjective, because what “an outstanding performer” or “a great relationship skill” means to you is not necessarily the same thing that it means to me. But if you ask, “Are Julia’s relationship skills better than those of Claudia?” that’s a question I can answer if I know both Julia and Claudia. And my answers are probably going to be very similar to yours. Relative judgments tend to be less noisy than absolute ones.



Sunday, September 26, 2021

สำนักงานจริยธรรมการวิจัยในมนุษย์ มหาวิทยาลัยธุรกิจบัณฑิตย์ Extra



  • สำนักงานจริยธรรมการวิจัยในมนุษย์ มหาวิทยาลัยธุรกิจบัณฑิตย์
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  • ethics.dpu@dpu.ac.th

 https://www.dpu.ac.th/human-research/download.html

Monday, September 20, 2021

Useful Expressions for Debating

 

Useful Expressions for Debating



Welcoming the audience

Ladies and Gentlemen welcome to this debate.


Stating the issue

The motion for debate today is ...

People / Dr. Johnson... believe(s) / feel(s) / insist(s) / think(s)...that...

Let's first define some important concepts...


Phrases to present the most important point

This argument/idea is of paramount importance.

The most important argument for ... is ...

The main idea/thing is ...

The most important idea is...

Most importantly, I want to mention that...

The primary argument for... is...

Two/three... important arguments support my point of view...


Conceding an argument

It's true/obvious/evident that ... However, ...

While you might say that ..., it's important to remember that ...

I agree with you that ... On the other hand, ...

Although/even though it is true that... I believe that...

I agree/admit/concede that... , but we must remember that...

I can understand that... Nevertheless, ...


Sequencing a list of arguments

First of all, I'd like to state ...

Firstly, ... Secondly, ...Thirdly, ...

The second argument in favor of ...

To begin with, ...

I'd start by...

For a start, ...

The next argument I'd like to state is...


 

Adding an argument to strengthen your point

In addition to that,...

You also have to consider...

Furthermore,...

Moreover,...

What is more,...

I might also add that...

Perhaps / maybe I should also mention...

Not to mention the fact that...

Not only that but also...

 

Concluding

Let me recap/recapitulate my point ...

As a final word, let me summarize my point of view ...

To reiterate my point of view, ...

My final thought is ...

It all boils down to ...

In a nutshell, what I am trying to say is ...

To sum up, ...

Finally, ...

  

Source: Useful Expressions for Debating. Retrieved from https://www.myenglishpages.com/site_php_files/communication-lesson-useful-expressions-for-debating.php

 


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