Thailand's Hard (Real) Power: Beyond the Hype of Soft Power
By Janpha Thadphoothon
In recent years, Thailand has garnered international attention for its burgeoning soft power, particularly through the global success of its entertainment industry, cuisine, and cultural exports. The rise of Thai influencers and the popularity of genres like "love" television have positioned the country as an artistic powerhouse. However, while soft power narratives dominate headlines, it is imperative to examine Thailand's hard power—its economic, technological, political, and military capabilities—that underpin its position on the global stage.
My thesis is that for a state to be successful in exercising soft power, it must first establish success in hard power. In other words, hard (or real) power serves as a prerequisite for the effective use of soft power.
The Economic Strength of Thailand
Thailand's economy, the second-largest in Southeast Asia (Thailand is being challenged by some other countries), presents a complex picture. In 2025, the country's GDP growth is projected to decelerate to 2.4% due to factors like global economic slowdowns and trade uncertainties. Despite this, sectors like tourism and private consumption continue to be key drivers, with tourism expected to return to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2025.
The Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) initiative exemplifies Thailand's commitment to economic modernization. With a $44 billion investment plan, the EEC aims to transform the region into a regional financial hub and smart city by 2037. This ambitious project underscores the country's strategic vision for long-term economic development.
In my opinion, Thailand’s economic potential is indeed held back by two interconnected issues: a shortage of skilled engineers and lagging adoption of AI technologies. The country's manufacturing and industrial base has traditionally been strong, but as global economies shift towards Industry 4.0 — where AI, robotics, and smart systems play a central role — Thailand’s pace of adaptation feels somewhat sluggish.
Common sense tells us that without a sufficient pool of engineers, especially those equipped with AI and data science skills, it's difficult to innovate, optimize industries, and build digital infrastructure that can compete regionally, let alone globally. We have talented people, but the educational system and public investment haven’t scaled fast enough to meet the demands of the new economy.
You can see countries like Vietnam accelerating AI research and tech entrepreneurship, while Singapore positions itself as a regional AI hub. Thailand risks falling behind in both productivity and influence if it doesn’t prioritize technical education reform, AI capacity building, and fast-track initiatives to bridge this digital gap.
Military Capabilities
Thailand's military remains a significant component of its hard power. The Royal Thai Armed Forces, comprising approximately 360,850 active duty and 200,000 reserve personnel, play a pivotal role in national defense. In 2025, the defense budget was increased to 200.9 billion baht (US$5.55 billion), reflecting a commitment to enhancing military capabilities.
The country has also engaged in joint military exercises, such as Hanuman Guardian 2025, to bolster interoperability with allies like the United States. Additionally, plans to acquire a tanker transport aircraft aim to enhance the Royal Thai Air Force's operational autonomy and regional engagement.
In terms of military strength, I think Thailand is doing well. We’ve maintained a solid position in global rankings over the years, and our available manpower has kept us within the top 20 worldwide. While other areas like technology and AI need to catch up, our military capability remains respectable.
Technological Advancements
Thailand's pursuit of technological advancement is evident in initiatives like the EEC, which focuses on developing industries such as robotics, aviation, and digital technologies. The government's emphasis on innovation aims to transition the economy towards high-value industries, reducing reliance on traditional sectors.
Furthermore, collaborations with international partners in defense technology, such as the integration of unmanned capabilities in military equipment, demonstrate Thailand's commitment to modernizing its technological landscape.
Political Landscape
Thailand's political environment is characterized by a delicate balance between democratic aspirations and the influence of the military. The military's historical involvement in politics, including multiple coups, has shaped the country's governance structure. While efforts have been made to promote democratic reforms, challenges persist in reducing the military's dominance in political affairs.
The Thai monarchy is a unique and deeply respected institution with a history of over 700 years. Even though absolute monarchy ended in 1932, it continues to serve as a unifying symbol for the country. The monarchy stays above politics and plays a non-partisan role under the Constitution, with powers to be consulted, to encourage, and to warn.
Demographic Challenges: The Aging Society
Thailand is now an aged society, with more than 20% of the population being 60 or older. This demographic shift poses significant challenges to the country's economic and social systems. The aging population is expected to increase to 28% by 2030, transitioning Thailand into a 'super-aged society'.
This demographic trend has profound implications for the labor market, healthcare, and social welfare systems. An aging population will reduce labor force participation and increase the demand for healthcare and welfare, requiring governments to adapt their policies and allocate resources accordingly.
Moreover, the economic impact of an aging population is significant. These demographic changes are anticipated to reduce GDP per capita growth by 0.86% in the 2020s. The shrinking workforce and increased dependency ratio may hamper economic productivity and tax revenues.
To address these challenges, Thailand has implemented various strategies, including encouraging older adults to remain in the workforce and investing in healthcare innovations to support healthy aging. Retailers have embraced older workers through corporate social responsibility initiatives, recognizing the value of their experience and the need to adapt to demographic realities
Thailand Futures
Let's look into the future of Thailand. I know you would agree with me that when we talk about predicting a nation’s trajectory, especially one as complex and nuanced as Thailand, it’s more an informed speculation than a certainty. Nevertheless, it is my belief that Thailand’s future position in the global arena in the next five to ten years will be shaped by a subtle yet fascinating interplay between its soft power charisma and hard power necessity.
Let me entertain you with this idea — while the world is obsessed with hard-hitting geopolitical players like the United States, China, and India, mid-sized nations like Thailand are quietly carving out spaces of influence through strategic balancing, cultural diplomacy, and regional leadership.
It is well known that Thailand has long positioned itself as a neutral, pragmatic player in Southeast Asia. Neither fully aligning with China nor the United States, the country has historically practiced what international relations scholars would call a hedging strategy — maintaining good relations with major powers while safeguarding its autonomy.
In my opinion, over the next decade, Thailand will continue this strategy but lean slightly more toward ASEAN-centric leadership. I somehow think it is inevitable. As superpower rivalries intensify in the Indo-Pacific, smaller countries will either get swept up or band together. I guess it is likely Thailand will step up within ASEAN as a moderate broker of peace, trade, and multilateral dialogue.
Economically, make no mistake, Thailand will not become a global superpower — but it will likely evolve into a regional economic stabilizer.
Fundamentally, it is all about the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) and Thailand 4.0 policy. The news has it that foreign investments in smart cities, aviation hubs, and high-value manufacturing are on the rise. Experts say if Thailand successfully capitalizes on its strategic location between India, China, and the ASEAN markets, it will become a logistical and industrial bridge for the region.
Some argue against Thailand’s ability to overcome its labor and education system constraints. And rightly so. But I like the idea of optimism here. Based on the first impression of recent policy shifts and public-private collaborations, gradually, I see a slow but steady modernization of Thailand’s economic backbone.
Politically, I must admit that Thailand will continue grappling with internal democratic challenges.
Nevertheless, it is my long-held belief that, though I could be wrong, the country will not descend into chaos. People say that Thai politics is a never-ending tug-of-war between the old guard and progressive forces. What we all know and agree upon is that the Thai public, especially the youth, are increasingly politically aware.
In the next decade, I would argue that we will witness more assertive civic movements, digital activism, and possibly constitutional reforms. The monarchy and military’s influence will still be significant but possibly more ceremonial and symbolic than direct, as the nation recalibrates its political institutions for the modern era.
Technologically, Thailand will chase but not lead.
As a matter of fact, Thailand’s ambitions in AI, biotech, and clean energy are well documented. The government’s push for digital infrastructure and smart cities is commendable. However, I notice a gap between policy ambition and practical execution. Nevertheless, it is my belief that partnerships with China, Japan, and Western firms will allow Thailand to play the role of an adopter and adapter of emerging technologies rather than a pioneer.
Thailand’s Room for Improvement
It has perplexed me how under-discussed this crisis is in mainstream narratives. By 2035, 30% of Thais will be over 60. Some argue for raising the retirement age; others argue against it. What’s more interesting is that Thailand will need to reimagine its labor policies, healthcare systems, and pension schemes. I could be wrong, but unless this demographic issue is urgently addressed, it will weigh down the country’s economic and social potential.
No one knows everything, but I would like to suggest that Thai films, fashion, food, and social media influencers will continue to shape regional pop culture. The success of BL series and Muay Thai’s global fanbase are just the beginning. Accordingly, I predict Thailand will leverage this soft power not just for tourism but for economic diplomacy and cultural branding.
Globally, nations with cultural capital often punch above their weight in international negotiations. As the saying goes, “people may forget what you did, but they’ll never forget how you made them feel.” Thailand makes the world feel good — through its cuisine, warmth, and creative arts. That’s a strategic asset you can’t quantify.
Thailand in the next five to ten years will be a middle-power nation with regional influence, soft power charisma, and cautious hard power capabilities. It will navigate global turbulence with flexibility, maintaining balanced ties with China, the US, and ASEAN neighbors.
It won’t be free from domestic strife or economic pressures, especially from its aging society. But the nation’s resilience, cultural pride, and diplomatic pragmatism will keep it afloat — and perhaps even thriving in select areas like tourism, cultural exports, and regional mediation.
I am not an expert, but I have read somewhere that middle-power nations thrive in uncertain multipolar worlds. Like it or not, the world moves on. Those were the good old days when superpowers called the shots, but now, nations like Thailand have unique chances to forge creative roles in global affairs.
Let me introduce you to the notion of “quiet influence.” It’s not about dominating headlines or making grand gestures. It’s about subtly shaping regional narratives, setting cultural trends, and becoming a reliable partner in an increasingly unpredictable world.
Balancing Soft and Hard Power
While Thailand’s soft power — through culture, tourism, and diplomacy — continues to attract global attention, it’s important not to overlook the country’s hard power dynamics. Economic initiatives like the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC), military developments, technological progress, and a complex political environment all play a crucial role in shaping Thailand’s overall national strength. At the same time, tackling demographic challenges, particularly an aging population, is essential to maintaining long-term economic growth and social cohesion.
Recognizing these interconnected factors offers a clearer, more balanced view of Thailand’s standing in the global arena. As the country navigates the delicate balance between soft and hard power, thoughtful strategic planning and forward-looking policy reforms will be vital in determining its future course.
My core thesis is that for a state to successfully exercise soft power, it must first establish strength in hard power. In other words, hard (or real) power forms the foundation upon which soft power can be effectively projected.
My conviction is that Thailand is well on its way to becoming such a quietly influential nation.
About the Author:
Please cite as:
Thadphoothon, J. " Thailand's Real (Hard) Power: Beyond the Hype of Soft Power" in JTBlog.
https://janpha.blogspot.com/2025/06/thailands-real-hard-power-beyond-hype.html
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